Jan - Mar 2001		The face of Indonesia's future
		After a dialogical process in fourteen cities over fourteen months, the Indonesia Future 2010 scenarios were formulated as follows (see www.imd2010.org). There are four scenarios. Which one, if any, will come true? It is up to you! Indonesia's Future is determined by what you decide today. We all decide. 1. On the edge This scenario combines an authoritarian government system with a pro-growth economic orientation. Separatist movements cause Indonesia to disintegrate. Conflicts between the regions and the centre spread to become inter-religious and inter-ethnic conflicts, labour conflicts, and anti-Chinese violence. Anarchy increases. Civil disobedience grows. Education and religion are used to enforce ideological uniformity. Economic growth occurs through big capital and high technology. After Aceh and Papua, Riau secedes from Indonesia. 2. Into the crocodile pit Combines an authoritarian government with a pro-fair distribution economic orientation. Indonesia becomes more authoritarian due to economic isolation. To keep up popular subsidies, the government over-exploits natural resources. Factories close, as resources grow scarce. Forced agriculture is brought back, as in colonial times. Dissidents are kept down by terror. Nationalist soldiers join populist forces to launch a coup d'etat. 3. Paddling a leaky boat Combines a democratic government system with a pro-growth economic orientation. Indonesia becomes democratic, with a free press and the rule of law. Regional autonomy works. Economic problems are overcome through growth, both through foreign investment and using domestic assets. 4. Slow but steady Combines a democratic government with pro-fair distribution economic orientation. Successful regional autonomy and decentralisation saves Indonesia from destruction. Democracy survives the end of the New Order. Foreign investors return, as does international credibility. Violence recedes. Justice becomes the basis for resolving conflict. Economic growth is low profile, but fair distribution reaches the regions.