|
One of the first tasks President Habibie set for his
administration was to revise Indonesia's political machinery.
This includes revising three of the five political laws of 1985
(the pinnacle of Suharto's integralist vision for the state), as
well as laws on the presidency, local authorities, government
ethics and national security.
Government drafts of the laws governing political parties,
elections and the legislature were being prepared for submission
to parliament by early August. The public response to these draft
laws will give an early indication of how far the Habibie
administration is believed willing to push for substantive reform
of the political system.
Among the proposed changes three are core.
District
First, a 'district' system of single member constituencies will
replace the current 'proportional' system. Instead of being
chosen by votes based on each province as a multimember regional
block, as now, each member will be chosen only on the basis of
votes in a single district, as in Australia's Lower House. The
system will deliver 420 elected members to the national
parliament (DPR), and others to the provincial and local DPRs.
There will be some exceptions. Abri wants to be given 10% of all
seats at each level. Also, district members in the national DPR
will be joined by some 75 other members elected on the basis of
a single national 'district'. These extra parliamentarians will
be chosen by consolidating losing party votes from each district
into a national tally and dealing them out.
The purpose of incorporating a modified version of a proportional
system is to overcome the 'winner take all' outcome of the
district system. Parties which may have significant support
nationally but insufficient in each district will be able to
secure representation in the house.
There remains some opposition to adopting a district system,
including the usual old lines about 'Indonesia is not ready for
this sort of change' to 'this will encourage money politics in
Indonesia'! The Indonesian Academy of Sciences (Lipi), one of the
think tanks producing reform plans, and particularly the armed
forces (Abri), remain somewhat unsure of moving to a district
system.
A mixed system blending districts with proportionality is the
most popular form of electoral reform around the world this past
decade. Countries from New Zealand to Tunisia, and most in East
Asia which have reformed their electoral system, have moved to
a mixed pattern, with each adopting various modes of voting and
percentages to be elected under each system.
Electoral commission
Second, the new General Elections Commission (Komisi Pemilihan
Umum - KPU) will be independent. It will contain representatives
from government, but also from the political parties eligible to
join in the elections. Members of the community agreed to jointly
by the first two groups will also be there. The commission chair
need not be a government representative.
Provincial and local KPUs will also be established. Provincial
KPUs will be permanent and independent of government.
The national KPU will propose the boundaries of district seats
for the national DPR. In general, these will correspond with
local authority boundaries. However, heavily populated local
authority areas will have more than one district. Those with over
900,000 will gain two seats, 1,500,000 will gain three seats,
2,100,000 will gain four seats and so on. For example the regency
of Bogor with about four million persons will be divided into
seven separate districts.
Parties
Third, political parties may be freely established, providing
they abide by the national ideology Pancasila. Should they wish
to incorporate other ideological/ philosophical elements, these
may not be opposed to Pancasila.
Political parties will be established by notarial act lodged at
the courts, not at the Department of Home Affairs. This means
that any legal issues will be settled by the law, and not by the
government unilaterally.
Political parties seeking to participate in general elections
need to demonstrate public support. They must have a presence in
over half the 27 provinces, and have a certain minimum number of
local branches.
Any party seeking to enter elections for the first time will also
need to demonstrate popular support with a petition of one
million signatures. This proposal is somewhat controversial.
Other issues
Members of the People's Assembly (MPR), which appoints the
president, will not be elected directly but will be drawn from
or appointed by lower parliaments.
Every province will send three representatives, each elected by
the provincial DPR from among their own number. There will be no
more provincial governors representing provinces in the MPR.
A newly elected national DPR will determine how many members of
what social and other groups (utusan golongan) should be
appointed to the MPR. Groups considered to represent these groups
will be asked to select an agreed number of representatives for
the MPR. The executive will no longer be responsible for
appointing regional representatives and utusan golongan.
Unlike today, the leaders of the DPR and MPR will be different
people.
Moreover, the elections will be held on a holiday. Consequently
people will be able to vote from home. This is generally
considered to lead to less coercion to support particular parties
than is the case when people have to vote at work.
Members of the armed forces may not vote, seek election or join
a political party. Public servants may vote but may not join
political parties or seek election. To do so will mean dismissal.
The intent behind this provision is to encourage the emergence
of a more professional, less politicised, bureaucracy.
There will also be strong measures to contain the
commercialisation of political parties. Personal and corporate
campaign donations will be subject to rigorous restrictions, and
regular public audits of political parties will be reported to
the KPU. This will encourage transparency and allow the public
to know the financial support base of the political parties.
Political parties must be not-for-profit organisations and may
not own more than 10% equity in any commercial activity.
Most of these developments are clear steps in the direction of
an open, competitive and responsive political format. However,
there has already been debate from the community on certain
government proposals:
The armed forces will still have representation (albeit
reduced) in all the parliamentary assemblies as well as in the
crucial MPR;
Some (although much fewer) restrictions will still apply on
former followers of the communist party (PKI) and other outlawed
organisations - specifically the right to be elected.
The result?
Over 40 new political parties have made themselves known in
recent weeks. This has become a source of great fear to many
people in Indonesia. They are beginning to fret that the 1950s
pattern will reappear, when 130+ parties contested elections, and
some 26 actually gained representation in either the DPR or the
Constituent Assembly of the time.
Frankly, such concerns are silly, for three reasons. Firstly, a
district-based system ensures that only dominant parties are
capable of winning seats. In 1955, the last time a genuinely free
election was held, only four parties secured over 80% of the
vote. These were the nationalist PNI (23%), the Islamic Masyumi
(22%), the Islamic Nahdatul Ulama (19%) and the communist PKI
(17%). The PSSI, another Islamic party, was at 3% a long way back
in fifth position.
Secondly, most of the new parties are really interest groups.
They will be better placed if they were to act as lobbies rather
than parties. An ideal example is the Indonesian Women's Party,
which could secure vastly more influence as an Indonesian Women's
Electoral Movement. It could pressure the political system
through lobbying, encouraging, cajoling and threatening the major
parties into taking account of their interests. No doubt some of
these parties will discover this in time.
Thirdly, the number of parties will diminish through a process
of absorption and merger. The political system will not come to
resemble the banking system - there will never be 239 political
parties!
Four parties
I expect the emerging party structure to consist of four large
parties, broken into two pairs of coalitions, plus a plethora of
small parties most of which will ultimately be absorbed into the
larger parties. I do not expect to see the emergence of a single
dominant party.
The first pair of coalition partners would consist of a Megawati
party and a Nahdatul Ulama (NU) type party. This would mean the
combination of a pluralist nationalist party with a rural Muslim
oriented party.
The second coalition partners will consist of Golkar and
urbanised and educated/ activist Islam. This would combine a
corporatist nationalist party with an urban based Muslim oriented
party.
The existing Islamically coloured party PPP is likely to split
between supporters of either of the two Muslim oriented parties,
although it may organisationally move closer to the Golkar
coalition partner.
The existing secular party PDI, led by Megawati until Suharto
ousted her in 1996, is likely to be retaken by Megawati this
year. If not, it will die and some new political vehicle will be
established from elements of the PDI which desert it to join with
Megawati.
Golkar will obviously have an impossible task trying to sustain
a result within cooee of what it has secured in the past six
elections.
Where will the votes come from for these four major parties?
District
Megawati party: Urban areas of Java, Sumatra, Balikpapan,
Menado, plus urban and rural areas of South Sumatra, Bali, West
Kalimantan, West Nusa Tenggara (eastern half), East Nusa
Tenggara, East Timor, Irian Jaya, plus one seat in Maluku.
NU related party: Rural areas in Java, also Madura and Southern
Sumatra, Banjarmasin, Samarinda, rural South Sulawesi, West Nusa
Tenggara (western half).
Golkar: Parts of rural Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi, and
perhaps in parts of the two Nusa Tenggara provinces.
Icmi, Amien Rais, Muhammadiyah linked party: Urban and rural
Aceh, West Sumatra, South Sulawesi, Gorontalo. It may pick up
seats in urban and north coast Java (particularly western half),
including South Jakarta through to Bogor.
In its most oversimplified form, the Megawati party and the
modernist Muslim party will do battle for the urban and sub-urban
regions while Golkar and the NU type party will battle for the
rural areas. The Megawati party might also do battle with Golkar
in the non-Muslim regions of eastern Indonesia and North Sumatra.
Among the possible additions to the party camps could be a
Protestant and Catholic party, which could secure results in the
largely Christian eastern regions especially in West Nusa
Tenggara (eastern half), East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, perhaps
Irian Jaya and East Timor plus in the eastern parts of North
Sulawesi. Such a group is more likely to feel comfortable with
the Megawati/ NU camp, but going with the Golkar/ modernist
coalition can not be totally dismissed.
1 August, 1998.
Kevin Evans is a Jakarta-based political economist.
|