no. 53 January-
March 1998
The last three months have been momentous. Nature, greed and fickle overseas money produced three almost unrelated crises. The El Nino effect caused drought. Greedy plantation companies set fires raging on many islands. The victims were mostly the rural poor. The financial crisis, unleashed by anonymous currency traders worldwide, thumped those with money.
Put together, the crises add enormously to the problems President Suharto already faces as he looks to ease himself out of power gently rather than rudely. He knows the financial crisis alone was enough to unseat the Thai government recently. Is the New Order now too old to handle the challenge?
We thought it important to take a hard look at the one group that made the New Order what it is today: the army. Whether or not Jakarta's government goes the way of Bangkok's - Priyambudi in this issue thinks it won't soon - we can be pretty sure the army will be there, trying to make the post-Suharto period look as much like the Suharto period as possible.
Economically Indonesia has marched ahead. But politically it is hostage to those who want it to mark time (to use a parade ground image). The latest generation of Abri officers appears to have no intention of resigning as the nation's drill sergeants.
So what makes the men in green tick? What are their thoughts on a replacement for the ageing president? Are there factions within Abri pushing different barrows?
Who are the individuals likely to emerge as the most powerful men in Indonesia, the way Suharto himself emerged three decades ago? How do they justify their continued dominance to an increasingly sophisticated public? How do they deal with dissent?
Our expert authors in this issue of Inside Indonesia address all these question and more.
Does it matter that people with guns make all the big decisions? Yes it does. A nation led by people who have spent most of their careers, as David Bourchier says, fighting their own citizens, can never be at peace with itself. Tragedies such as those described in this issue - from the army-backed invasion of Megawati's campaign headquarters to the never-ending drama in East Timor - are bound to recur. Indonesians do not find such things more acceptable than would any westerner.
To all our generous authors (twenty in all!), as well as those who worked behind the scenes, our heartiest thanks!
