John Howard wasn't the only one to wrong-guess the next Indonesian president. Even in Jakarta, Gus Dur was the candidate that nobody took seriously. Yet his election was yesterday welcomed in press commentary across the political spectrum. Gus Dur, blind and ailing as he is, could turn out to be good for the country.

Gus Dur, or Abdurrahman Wahid to use his proper name, was born 59 years ago into a deeply religious family in Jombang, East Java. His grandfather Hashim Asy'ari founded the large religious organisation Nahdatul Ulama (NU) in 1926. Gus Dur learned to recite the Koran from him. But his schooling was by no means parochial. He also learned Dutch, English and a love of classical western music and literature.

In his twenties he took lectures in Islam in Cairo and Baghdad, though without gaining a degree at either. Back home and married to Siti Nuriah, to whom he is devoted, Gus Dur immersed himself again in the religious schools movement within NU. Islamic liberationist ideas he had discovered in the Middle East suggested he could turn these schools, of which there are thousands in rural Java, into grass-roots communities of democracy.

In the 1980s he began to emerge as an intellectual with fresh ideas on the role that religion could play in creating a pluralist, non-violent society. Elected chairman of Nahdatul Ulama in 1984, he immediately broke the subservient relationship it had had with government by declaring NU would become a cultural and no longer a political organisation. He used that freedom to nurture a new generation of young activists who taught social justice at village level throughout Java. When Suharto began to see through Gus Dur's plan, he several times tried to push him out of the NU leadership, but without success.

Meanwhile, he began to associate publicly with progressive secular intellectuals such as Arief Budiman (now in Melbourne). Here he showed that Islam could sit loose from ancient words and traditions and inspire liberating social action, alongside people of other convictions.

In late 1996, as the power of Suharto's government began to wane, several riots broke out that had an anti-Chinese, anti-Christian character. Gus Dur always pleaded against such bigotry, and won the undying respect of Christians throughout Indonesia.

But how did Gus Dur manage to turn this popularity into the presidency? For he is not, strictly speaking, a party figure. He did give his blessing to the NU-related National Awakening Party (PKB), but he had no formal connection with it. From its limited base in East Java, the PKB trailed fourth in the June 7 elections. It in any case favoured Megawati, not Gus Dur, for president.

His election on Wednesday afternoon was the accidental result of a system hastily cobbled together to carry Indonesia towards democracy.

First, the system elects the president indirectly. Although Indonesians last June voted with a presidential favourite in mind, they were actually electing members to a Consultative Assembly. There the president was elected amidst horse-trading that would make voters' ears flap.

Second, the multiparty system resulted in not two but an unstable three blocs in the Assembly. Gus Dur was the distinctly tactical candidate of the Axis Force of mostly Islamic parties, situated between Megawati's PDI-P and Habibie's Golkar. His candidature might have been meant to split the Habibie vote and thus get Megawati up. But when Golkar collapsed spectacularly on Tuesday evening, Gus Dur suddenly found himself pitted against Megawati.

Third, the parties inexplicably adopted a secret ballot system that effectively threw party discipline out the window and turned the presidential election into a conscience vote. Habibie's downfall was probably helped by some Golkar members who voted against their own leader over his accountability speech. Unable to agree on a presidential candidate from their own midst, sleep-deprived Golkar members from both major factions then offered their support to Gus Dur. It was Megawati they were scared of.

No one now disputes that Gus Dur is president. So what kind of government will he form?

Accidental his election may have been, but Gus Dur might help restore unity. He is a 'non-political' compromise president. Megawati supporters were certainly disappointed that she did not become president, but Gus Dur shares her ideals of social justice and religious tolerance. Golkar supporters, strong within the bureaucracy, at least don't have Megawati in charge of them. More orthodox Muslims support Gus Dur as an 'Islamic' president who does not have the religious (and gender!) problems of Megawati.

He will now probably form a national reconciliation government drawing on all the major political parties - including PDI, Golkar and the Islamic parties. This will make Gus Dur a weak but inclusive president who will work hard to keep people happy. He will have to rely on others for expertise, and concentrate on what he is best at - being a symbolic head of state who can give Indonesians back their battered self-respect.

His health is a major concern. He had a stroke in January last year that, some say, has affected his mental capacity. He contradicts himself so much even his admirers shake their heads. He accused Australia of wanting to create a military base in East Timor. He wants to forgive Suharto for his crimes. His blindness makes him too dependent on a small number of aides. If Habibie can rightly be described as Indonesia's Gorbachev, who opened up an authoritarian system, we may well hope Abdurrahman Wahid does not become a Yeltsin, who lurches from crisis to crisis propped up by a team of doctors.

Nevertheless, he is a reformer and a humanitarian, and most Indonesians respect him. It is the first time in many decades that Indonesia has had a president of whom that could be said.

[An edited version of this article appears in The Age (Melbourne) and Sydney Morning Herald, 22 October 1999]

Gerry van Klinken, editor, 'Inside Indonesia' magazine.