In 1990, the military in Burma dismissed an overwhelming election result against them, and took the country down a dark road of international isolation. By contrast, the Thai military in 1992 failed in what may have been their last coup attempt. Thailand is now a somewhat chaotic but open democracy. Indonesia today stands at an Asian crossroads - will it take the Burma road, or the Thai road?

Much recent commentary sees Indonesia already heading down the Burma road. Unfortunately several signs do point in that direction. But there are also counter-signs, and we would be foolish to prejudge the outcome. Among the most worrying signs pointing down the Burma road is the way Megawati's party is snuggling up to the military, and up to Golkar. Struggle PDI won the most votes in the June 7 election.

Golkar deputy chairman Marzuki Darusman says he wants a 'consensus' government that brings together Golkar, Struggle PDI and apparently the military. Such a government would bring back the Suharto era. It would spit in the face of the electorate, which saw Golkar and Struggle PDI as rivals, not as potential coalition partners. Ironically, Mr Marzuki is widely respected in Indonesia for his human rights advocacy.

General Wiranto, meanwhile, has just strengthened his own hand with a state security law that gives more power to the military. He may be supporting an ultra-nationalist campaign against Australia for 'interfering' in East Timor. Both Golkar and Struggle PDI party insiders speak openly about General Wiranto as a likely presidential or vice-presidential candidate.

This all looks pretty serious. So why are these signs not enough to declare that the New Order, Mark II, with General Wiranto as a second Suharto, is about to begin? The reason is that several signs point in the opposite direction. Indonesia has by no means stepped decisively onto the desperately sad Burma road. It may yet finds itself traveling down the much less predictable, but also more hopeful Thai road.

Even a military-dominated government has to play the political game. Dictator that he was, even Suharto had to win political support. And General Suharto in his day had some cards to play that General Wiranto does not have up his sleeve.

In 1965-66, Suharto had Muslims with him because he and they both feared 'atheist' communists. Megawati's budding alliance with the military, and perhaps with Golkar, has little Islamic participation. It is true that Golkar and Struggle PDI together won over half the seats in the last elections. But the remaining parties, largely Islamic, are now loosely allied into a so-called Axis Force. Amien Rais is its central figure. He was one of the most democratic figures during the election campaign,

Axis Force leaders have spoken out against military abuses. Military violence in deeply Islamic Aceh awakens more sympathy in Jakarta than does East Timor. A military-dominated government would probably continue the violence in Aceh, and this will surely rally Islamic solidarity protests in Jakarta.

Moreover, many Indonesians voted for Megawati because she resisted Suharto's violence towards her party in the past. They will feel betrayed if she now allies herself with Suharto's Golkar as well as with his military. Anti-military feeling is high among students, who have protested in their thousands against the new state security law in recent days.

In 1965-66, the business community also supported Suharto. They feared communists for other than religious reasons. With the communist party gone, today's middle class has less reason to look to the military to save them. Just as in Thailand in 1992 the military failed to persuade, so General Wiranto may simply not convince Indonesians that he is a saviour. His image is not as badly damaged inside Indonesia as it is outside, but damaged it certainly is.

General Suharto won international support in 1966 because he was a Cold War warrior who promised to bring Indonesia back into the Western bloc. The Cold War ended in 1990 and today the USA is much less inclined to wink at military-led regimes. Even as vice-president, let alone as president, Mr Wiranto would be met with demonstrations whenever he traveled overseas. Who would shake hands with him after the East Timor debacle? The Burma road to international pariah status is not a pleasant prospect for Indonesians who need international aid and trade.

Indonesia on the Burma road would be a disaster for Australia-Indonesia relations. Violent and mired in an economic swamp, it would be a place Australian prime ministers visited only at a high price in public disapproval. Indonesia on the Thai road would be much easier. Yes, there would be endless scandal and intrigue, and it would be hard to know who exactly was in charge. But two democracies have never gone to war.

[This article appears in Brisbane's 'Courier Mail' on 25 September 1999]

Gerry van Klinken, editor, 'Inside Indonesia' magazine.