Two broad new political groups are emerging in Indonesia with
substantial middle-class support. One is Islamic, the other
secular. In a country with a population of more than 200 million
in which Christian, Hindu, Buddhist, Taoist and other minorities
coexist with a Muslim majority, religion provides an important
cleavage line in politics.
Amien Rais heads the Islamic group. Its most surprising aspect
is that it now fully backs the government of President B.J.
Habibie. Mr. Rais has gone from being a courageous and outspoken
opponent of the Suharto regime to being the strongest supporter
of its successor.
Is Mr. Habibie then the democrat that President Suharto was
not? Hardly, when half of his cabinet was retained from the last
Suharto cabinet. There is real talent among them, but they have
by no means disavowed the past.
Why has Mr. Rais, the democrat, thrown his weight behind Mr.
Habibie? Because Mr. Habibie, former head of the Indonesian
Muslim Intellectuals' Association, is seen as an Islamic
president.
Suddenly prominent among the emerging Islamic group is KISDI,
the Indonesian Committee for Islamic World Solidarity, led by
Achmad Sumar-gono. For several years KISDI and its associated
Dewan Dakwah missionary organization have been vociferous but
marginal. KISDI has organized demonstrations on issues such as
Western pornography and gambling, but also on causes that to the
outsider appear anti-Semitic, anti-Chinese and intolerant of
other religions, including the Javanese mystical religion.
When Mr. Rais addressed a recent meeting in Jakarta that
included 10,000 representatives from 44 Islamic groups, he urged
people to cease attacking Mr. Habibie's government and give it
time to show what it could do. Other speakers promoted the idea
of an Islamic political party. KISDI's Mr. Sumargono yelled out,
evidently to the approval of those present: ''Islam yes, Islamic
party yes.''
The secular group is clustered around Emil Salim and
Nurcholish Madjid. Mr. Emil is a former cabinet minister who
stands for market-oriented reform. Mr. Madjid is an Islamic
intellectual of the tolerant kind who has long said, by contrast
to Mr. Sumargono, ''Islam yes, Islamic party no.''
The secular group initially placed itself in opposition to the
Habibie government. But it recently toned down its opposition and
renamed itself the Counterweight Group, presumably because it
does not want to alienate itself from Mr. Habibie by being overly
confrontational.
Why has this secular group softened from being an opposition
force to one that is merely a corrective to the Habibie
administration? There are two reasons. One stems from a remark
by Mr. Madjid that Mr. Habibie is now seen by many in Indonesia
as an Islamic president.
If moves were made to unseat him, which would in fact not be
difficult to do, then his Islamic supporters would not only
defend themselves, they would attack, Mr. Madjid warned.
That in turn, he fears, would trigger a possibly bloody
takeover by the army, which is determined to block moves to
replace Indonesia's secular state with an Islamic regime.
The other reason has to do with Mr. Salim's links to economic
policymakers. Many economists and senior officials plead for
concerted action and national cohesion to stabilize the rupiah.
The powerful commander of the armed forces, General Wiranto, also
wants priority given to economic recovery. The military dreads
the prospect of 18 months of free-for-all politics.
Confident of support from Mr. Rais, Mr. Habibie has moved to
embrace the secular group by coopting several leading technocrats
into an important economic advisory council.
If these are to remain the two main political groups in
post-Suharto Indonesia, it is likely that Mr. Habibie will stay
in office for some time yet.
Gerry van Klinken, editor, 'Inside
Indonesia' magazine.