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Since that historic Thursday 21 May, everything seems up for
grabs. New Order politics have been so personalised that with
Suharto gone a whole era seems to have passed.
Public attacks in recent days on the Suharto children's
businesses for 'unfairly' winning government contracts, and a
rush on BCA banks because the Suharto family owns most of the
shares, are probably only the beginnings of the destruction of
the entire Suharto business empire, with prosecutions perhaps to
follow.
The sacking of LtGen Prabowo & his gang of state
terrorists, and possibly a public denouncement by armed forces
commander Wiranto of the tactics Prabowo was fond of, suggests
Abri wants to distance itself from these tactics.
President Habibie, last remnant of Suharto's influence on
Indonesian politics, is floundering. After initially pretending
he might hang on until 2003, he said on Monday he would hold
elections for a new government 'as soon as possible'. No one
knows how much of the old electoral machinery will still be in
place when they are held.
The release of two high profile political prisoners, with
possibly more to come, signals a willingness of the current
government to distance itself from the repressive posture of its
predecessor.
The destruction of Suharto certainly does seem much more
complete than anyone had dared to hope, myself included. I
thought he would not go, or if he did go he would be able to
maintain his influence from behind the scenes. Instead, he may
well be looking for refuge overseas right now - a fate even worse
than that of Sukarno, who at least was permitted to live out his
life in secluded peace in Java.
But has a new era really begun? Isn't it possible that
everything but the face of the president stays the same? How
would we know if the New Order really has passed? What are the
milestones that need to be passed before we are satisfied a new
era has dawned? In other words, how revolutionary is the
situation in Indonesia?
Journalists just love sharp discontinuities such as this.
Historians (perhaps for that reason!) tend to distrust them as
illusory. Discontinuities are certainly tricky things, especially
when we're in the middle of one.
Politically, we can probably identify three big milestones
Indonesia needs to pass to be sure the New Order is no more. In
order of increasing difficulty they are these:
Golkar collapses. The whole machinery of
ideological and political manipulation needs to be dismantled.
New political parties need the freedom to flourish. Indeed,
a whole raft of laws restricting political activities, including
the press, needs to be repealed or at least disabled. Some of
these laws date back to colonial times, yet have been used
continuously and as recently as a few weeks ago.
Army returns to barrack. Dwifungsi, the doctrine
of the dual function of the armed forces, justifies the almost
uncontested priority the army has had in politics since the
beginning of the New Order. It has provided stability. It has
also caused immense human suffering. Dwifungsi must be abolished,
or at least sharply redefined, to be sure the New Order has
passed.
The guilty punished. To make a clean break with the
past, Indonesia needs a large symbolic act, in which the wrongs
of the past are atoned, victims are reconciled, and the nation
collectively says: 'Never again'. This could mean criminal
tribunals for those guilty of human rights abuse on a massive
scale, and rehabilitation of those millions victimised as second
class citizens by their association with the order before
Suharto's. If it is done, this will be not simply a legal act,
but a cultural, even a religious one, like South Africa's Truth
and Reconciliation Commission, or the Holocaust Remembrances in
Europe.
We could mention many more, but these three milestones at
least establish the scale of transformation Indonesians are
looking for. How is progress on these indicators to date?
Golkar collapses? Yes, very likely. The three political
parties have been discredited by their silence during the crisis.
Two of Golkar's own components (MKGR & Kosgoro) have announced
they are forming new political parties. The two released
political prisoners will both form new parties. Wheeling and
dealing to form other new parties is furious. Party politics now
seem completely fluid. David Bourchier (Sydney Morning Herald
25/5) suggests that three or four large new political parties may
emerge: an Islamic middle class party (somewhat nationalist), a
secular middle class party (somewhat market-oriented), possibly
a rural Nahdatul Ulama party, and a workers' party. This would
make the political landscape resemble Indonesia in the 1950s
(Masyumi, PNI, NU, PKI respectively).
The army returns to barracks? Some will say: 'And pigs can
fly'. It certainly is not happening yet, but it may come. Wiranto
is certainly the good guy for getting rid of Prabowo, and he is
now considerably stronger than even Habibie himself. This puts
Wiranto in a similar position to that of Suharto himself on 1
October 1965, when he had disarmed Sukarno's palace guard and was
poised to push aside Sukarno. When four students were shot dead
on 12 May on their own campus by army sharp shooters, the student
opposition failed to blame dwifungsi. This allowed Wiranto, as
so many generals have done before him, to depict the shooting as
an aberration rather than normal military practice.
However, despite a superficial resemblance to Suharto in 1965,
Wiranto may not be able or even interested to play the same role.
There is no Cold War to persuade the USA that military government
is OK. There is no communism to persuade an Indonesian middle
class it is OK. Indonesia faces economic reform so painful only
a popular government can pull it off. Despite the surprisingly
weak opposition pressure on dwifungsi, the army may well go half-
way back into their barracks - perhaps along Pakistani or Thai
lines. Even pulling back only half-way will have a major
liberating effect on politics.
Punish the guilty? Releasing two political prisoners was
an important step, as these people will invigorate the renewal
movement. They will strengthen the ranks of those who demand
'total reformation' (as opposed to Habibie's more hesitant
'constitutional reformation'). But as symbolic acts go much, much
more is required. Besides another two hundred or so political
prisoners, including communists and East Timorese resistance
leaders, there are vast numbers whose lives remain miserable
because of their alleged communism 30 years ago - former
political prisoners and their close relatives who have no civil
rights at all. These people need to be completely exonerated,
indeed they need to be honoured for their forbearance and loyalty
to the nation.
This is an urgent agenda that is symbolic because it goes far
beyond mere legality. It means dealing with the demons within
Indonesian society. I can see it happening in my mind's eye, but
not tomorrow.
Yet even reconciliation with these millions of 'communists'
will not be a large enough symbolic act to deal with the past.
I am convinced that calls for a criminal court to try those
responsible for encouraging those demons, from Suharto down, will
grow. Some of these individuals are presently in government - for
example the Information Minister Yunus Yosfiah, best known in
Indonesia for having shot dead East Timorese resistance leader
Nikolau Lobato. Wiranto has undertaken to 'protect' Suharto, and
this presumably means no trial. Yet without it, the New Order has
not passed.
Indonesian politics in the New Order has been deeply elitist.
That elite has been thrown into disarray by the economic crisis
and the collapse of its central individual. If the movement for
reform makes strong headway on all three fronts in the next few
months - disband Golkar, return the army to barracks, and punish
the guilty - then the New Order will have really passed and a new
order begun. What are Indonesians going to call it? That new
order can then begin the huge task of reconstructing the legal,
economic, and political landscape of Indonesia. If, on the other
hand, progress is slow on these criterion, then not enough has
been resolved to justify speaking of a new era.
Gerry van Klinken, editor, 'Inside
Indonesia' magazine.
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