One lesson from this week's events must surely be this. Suharto has not maintained his grip on power for thirty years by his own sheer strength. The newly rich middle classes want him there. They are too anxious about the alternatives to challenge him.
Only a week ago it seemed as if the anti-Suharto students were finding allies among the broader middle class. Not one but three new groups of prominent figures called on him to resign. Journalists cheered when the speaker of parliament, Mr Harmoko, announced he had also asked the president to resign.
But Suharto knows how to play them like a fiddle. On Tuesday this week he announced he would reform the electoral laws, then call an election 'as soon as possible', one in which he himself would not stand.
He also made lesser concessions. He promised laws against monopolies that could destroy his family business empire. He will reshuffle his cabinet. He will invite representatives from the opposition movement onto a 'reform committee'.
But he announced no resignation, and no election date. It could be at least twelve months before a new president is in place. In the meantime he remains president. All the instruments to find a replacement for him remain firmly in his own hands.
Suharto is commander in chief of the armed forces. General Wiranto, previously lionised as a champion of reform, on Monday reaffirmed his support for the president, said protests had been infiltrated by radicals, and asked people to cancel today's nation-wide demonstrations.
Suharto remains chairman of the board of Golkar, the government's electoral machine, which last time won him a landslide victory despite his evident unpopularity in the streets. With the support of the military, he could do it again - perhaps for a hand-picked successor. He looks relaxed and in control.
Too little too late? A trick to play for time while he hangs on? That's what the foreign media said. And that's what the students said. And they are no doubt right. But how did the respected leaders of the opposition movement react? That is where the lesson was driven home again.
Before making his announcement, Suharto spent some hours chatting with the most respected religious figures in Indonesia. Abdurrahman Wahid was there, the genial leader of Nahdatul Ulama now almost blinded by diabetes. So were Nurcholish Madjid and Emha Ainun Nadjib, both popular for their criticisms of Suharto in the past. As the president read out his reform package, they stood behind him in apparent agreement.
The only major opposition leader not there was Amien Rais, leader of the Muhammadiyah religious organisation. He condemned the package as 'a political joke' and called on a million supporters to come on to the streets in a massive demonstration on Wednesday.
But yesterday morning, after heavy pressure from the military, he changed his mind. Fearing bloodshed, he called on them not to come after all. Amien Rais' last chance of leading a 'people's power' opposition may now have faded.
The urban middle class, meanwhile, heeded his call. As impressed with Suharto's concessions as with Wiranto's threats, they mostly stayed away from yesterday's rallies.
Why are Indonesia's opposition leaders so reluctant to oppose the president? Because they fear the chasm of chaos as much as do the elite in government. Last week's devastating riots, leaving perhaps over a thousand dead and immense property damage in Jakarta as well as other cities, were the reminder they needed that even the Suharto they love to hate is better than 'anarchy'. When Suharto offered them a concession, no matter how small, they decided to take it.
The 'reform committee' will include some of the cultural figures who had begun to turn against him. They will accept the invitation because, they will say, it gives them a chance to influence a constitutional transition to a new president. Abandoning the opposition rally for prestigious chairs in the halls of power, they will want to gain a grip over Suharto's dying days in office. Suharto, master of co-opting his enemies, will see it differently. He did not say what the 'reform committee's' powers would be.
The cabinet reshuffle is certainly unprecedented. There is talk that up to half the members of this brand new cabinet will be replaced. Yet even this massive reshuffle can be turned to his advantage. He can lay the blame for the nation's ills on those he sacks. For example, armed forces commander Wiranto could be blamed for failing to control rioting.
The anti-trust legislation? Let's just say it's a nice promise.
Suharto has regained the political initiative. Middle class debates over the very first step alone - how to reform the electoral laws - will stall opposition momentum and give Suharto the breathing space he needs.
The students, meanwhile, can now have little confidence that anyone will stick with them through the long haul. Their true leaders are in jail. They are thrown back on their own resources.
Even more leaderless are the urban poor, who rioted to such
calamitous effect last week. No one at all is speaking out for
them, and they have nowhere to take their anger for redress.
Gerry van Klinken, editor, 'Inside
Indonesia' magazine.
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