Suharto has announced he will not be a candidate in elections he will call 'as soon as possible'. He also made lesser but still major concessions. Headlines around the world will proclaim that Suharto has caved in at last. It looks like an orderly retreat that will save the nation great pain. But has he caved in? Hardly. Instead, he has regained the political initiative, and is sure to have weakened opposition momentum.
After more than three decades in power, Suharto some time soon will no longer be president. Surely music in the ears of the popular opposition. The announcement will deservedly win him much praise around the world, and within the country. The situation seemed set to deteriorate into even worse anarchy than we have seen already. Critics said he would never give in. He has confounded them.
He put in place a comprehensive reform package that includes his own political demise. There will be legislation against cartels and monopolies. If implemented thoroughly, they could destroy his own family business empire, and will please the IMF. He will reshuffle his cabinet, and set up a 'reform council' with representatives from the opposition movement.
But he announced no resignation, and no election date. It could be twelve to eighteen months before a new president is in place. In the meantime he remains president. All the instruments to find a replacement for him remain firmly in his own hands.
Suharto is commander in chief of the armed forces. General Wiranto, often lionised as a champion of reform, on Monday reaffirmed his support for the president, said protests had been infiltrated by radicals, and asked people to cancel today's nation-wide demonstrations. Many members of the urban middle class will probably stay away from today's rallies, impressed with Suharto's concessions and with Wiranto's threats.
Suharto remains chairman of the board of Golkar, the government's electoral machine, which last time around won him a landslide victory despite his evident unpopularity in the streets. With the support of the military, it is possible he could do it again - this time for his hand-picked successor.
Suharto looks relaxed and in control of his government. If he is really making an exit, he is managing it himself in a calm, dignified manner.
But don't his other concessions show a player with a losing hand? The cabinet reshuffle is certainly unprecedented. Only twice during the New Order has he dismissed a minister, both in recent months and as they approached the end of their time in office. This cabinet is brand new, but there is talk up to half its members will be replaced.
Yet even this massive reshuffle can be turned to his advantage. He can lay the blame for the nation's ills on those he sacks. For example, armed forces commander Wiranto could be blamed for failing to control rioting. The vacancy could be a nice opportunity for his son-in-law Lt-Gen Prabowo. Reappointing some market-friendly technocrats, at the expense of a crony like Bob Hasan, won't harm relations with the IMF. Even releasing his daughter Tutut from her duties would not be too painful. She wears plenty of other public hats.
And what about the 'reform council'? This idea was first mooted by Gen Wiranto on Monday. It could include many of the respected cultural and religious figures who have lately signed opposition appeals against Suharto. Perhaps even some students. Many will accept the invitation, arguing it gives them a chance to influence the course of events.
They would abandon the opposition rally for a prestigious chair in the halls of power. They will hope to gain a grip over Suharto's dying days in office. But Suharto, master of coopting his enemies, will see it differently. He did not say what the 'reform council's' powers would be.
The anti-trust legislation? Let's just say it's a nice promise.
Suharto certainly seems ready to exit from the palace, something his opponents said he would never do. But will that be the end of his dominance? Not necessarily. He said in his speech he was still prepared to serve the nation. He could have himself appointed to another position, and thus maintain his influence.
He could invigorate an existing institution like the Supreme Advisory Council (DPA) and put himself at its head, or create a new one. Like Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, he would withdraw and supervise his successor. A clever move, and good for stability if carried off wisely. Again he would confound his opponents.
We know nothing about the deal made in the last few days. Did it involve indemnity from prosecution for himself and his family? Seeing former South Korean president Chun Doo Hwan in the dock for killing South Koreans sent shivers down Suharto's spine. It was one reason he would not resign.
Is Suharto stepping down? Probably yes, but not today, and he
remains determined that only he will determine the manner of his
going.
Gerry van Klinken, editor, 'Inside
Indonesia' magazine.
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