Jakarta's streets have taken on a Dantean atmosphere. 'As I write from my sixth floor office', a friend wrote to me yesterday, 'I have a good view of the city. I see fires everywhere'. The luxurious inner city home of Liem Sioe Liong, Suharto crony and Indonesia's wealthiest man, was burned out by angry mobs on Thursday. Suharto's grandchildren have apparently flown out to London. Suharto returned to Jakarta on Friday from a state visit to Egypt, where he is reported to have said he was prepared to resign. Does he now have any option but to do exactly that?
There is no doubt that his regime has the smell of defeat about it. Amidst the smoke rising above Jakarta there is an electric atmosphere of anticipation such as we have not known for decades. But even if in the long run Suharto is dead (too obvious for words, but a reality he himself has ignored), he is by no means out of options in the short term. The television pictures do not tell us that there is a political game in Indonesia, and Suharto is a past master at it. It will take more than rioting to dislodge a system he has nurtured for three decades.
He has the choice of adopting a security approach or a political one. As a military man the idea of cracking heads is familiar to him and will spring most naturally to mind. The recent super-parliament (MPR) authorised him to use powers beyond the law to maintain security.
He may not even need them. The New Order has been effectively in a state of emergency throughout its life. Shadowy armed intelligence organisations trained in torture and psywar techniques do their dirty work unhindered. Perhaps applying a curfew, shooting more looters, closing university campuses, and kidnapping opposition organisers will be enough to restore order in the business districts. It could win Suharto enough credit with the frightened business community to regain control.
He does run the risk that giving soldiers their heads might make them cocky. In 1966 the army led by a certain General Suharto was asked to repress anti-government demonstrations and walked away with permanently enhanced powers. But 1998 is not 1966. The army then was hungry for more power. Today it has all the power it wants. Suharto is its godfather and will probably always be enshrined in its hall of fame as the supreme example of how to play the game. Moreover, Suharto has spent years weeding out possible military challengers to his power.
He could also (and at the same time) adopt a political approach. That means talking with opponents both within and outside the government. These people do not have arms but they are popular and their word can move millions onto the streets - angry crowds possibly far larger than weapons could control.
Suharto is no novice to this game either. Over the last three decades he has built up a semblance of constitutional politics with plenty of prestigious trappings. He has a parliament and a huge political party. He has state-owned television and radio.
The establishment has always played along nicely. Of course the shine has dulled lately because Suharto has not been able to deliver the goodies that kept dissent among the wealthy classes muted. But Suharto may consider he can talk them round still by offering certain concessions.
Even before he went to Egypt his political machine, Golkar, suggested to parliament it might change certain objectionable laws. Harsh electoral laws could be lifted (for next time - 2002). The widely criticised subversion law could be abolished. A law against business monopolies is being drafted. The government could ratify international conventions against torture.
The opposition out on the streets will dismiss all this as too little too late. But Suharto may figure that the concessions will distract an only lately disenchanted establishment long enough to allow him to regroup.
Will these options work for him? It's certainly too early to dismiss them out of hand. But their success will depend on the determination of the opposition.
The students have shown extraordinary energy and discipline, and they now smell blood. They are demonstrating constantly all over the country, confident that anger over rising prices are bringing both the urban poor and white collar workers into a united anti-Suharto campaign.
The press reflects this adrenalin-charged atmosphere of defiance and is making it clear Suharto needs to make much more than cosmetic change now.
Beyond the students, the Islamic leader Amien Rais has worked tirelessly for months to bring together a broadly based 'clean coalition'. Yesterday he announced the formation of a People's Council (Majelis Amanah Rakyat) which he says will channel the aspirations of the people. Interior Minister Hartono has already warned him against setting up 'an alternative super-parliament'.
Its 55 members include many of the most respected individuals in Indonesian public life. Lawyers, poets, economists, several former cabinet ministers, religious leaders, student leaders, and some business leaders are among the 55. Rather than offering a political or economic program, the council will provide a moral focus for anti-Suharto opposition by reasserting Indonesia's revolutionary heritage of fairness and justice for all.
As yet, Megawati Sukarnoputri and Abdurrahman Wahid are not among the 55. These were seen only three months ago as major opposition figures. Nor does it include military figures either active or retired. But even without them, this new council will begin to provide the kind of moral leadership Indonesia so desperately needs.
Amien Rais recently visited the United States at the invitation of the National Council of Churches. He acquitted himself well and must have begun to look suddenly like the statesman Indonesia needs to lift its fortunes on the global stage.
The Amien Rais-led opposition is rapidly becoming a serious
alternative in the minds of many observers. If Suharto's security
approach fails to do the trick, and if his cosmetic concessions
also fail to satisfy the nation, then he too will be forced to
take Amien Rais seriously.
Gerry van Klinken, editor, 'Inside
Indonesia' magazine.
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