(This article appeared in the Courier Mail, 23 January, 1998)
Indonesia's ruling Golkar party on Tuesday announced a set of criteria for the vice-presidency that pointed at current minister for research and technology, Dr Habibie. The vice-president ought to have strong credentials in science and technology, the party said. President Suharto, meanwhile, accepted nomination for another term.
In theory, Indonesia's vice-president is just a heartbeat away from power. Suharto's dubious health has certainly concentrated minds on the vice-presidency. But theory often fails in Indonesia, and many greeted Habibie's oblique nomination for the vice-presidency with dismay rather than with relief.
Dr Habibie, 61, is a personal protege of the president. Suharto was almost a father to him as a soldier in the early 1950s. He is among the few of whom Suharto has always spoken with affection.
Today Habibie plays two distinct roles. First, he heads a large state-owned technological empire that includes aircraft manufacture and plans for nuclear power. In its heyday, this empire gave him enormous prestige, even if the economists balked at the billions it swallowed with little to show for it. He even made big-ticket purchases of ships and aeroplanes on behalf of the armed forces. Muscling in on army territory like this of course did not endear him to the soldiers.
But the financial crisis has doomed the costly enterprise, and with it much of Habibie's prestige. In the agreement with the IMF signed on 15 January, Indonesia agreed no more state funds would be spent on Habibie's expensive projects.
Habibie's second role is to head the Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals Association, ICMI. Suharto sponsored this organisation in 1993 to woo Islamic sentiment. Even if Habibie is hardly a pious Muslim, many Muslim bureaucrats hoped he would be their gateway to greater political influence. They portray Habibie as a civilian presidential candidate who would reduce military power.
By getting Golkar to float the idea that he might appoint Habibie as vice-president, Suharto no doubt hopes to court this Islamic opinion and stop it joining a growing chorus calling for his resignation.
However, even if Habibie makes it to the vice-presidential office, he may find the short walk up the road to the presidential palace too far.
Vice-presidents have historically held no more than a ceremonial position in Indonesia. Suharto has never delegated powers to his vice-president, not even during his recent illness. Nor has he ever reappointed his vice-president for another term.
Certainly, should the president be incapacitated, the vice- president would normally act in his place. However, opponents such as those within the armed forces will then argue that the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), to be held in March this year, only gives a mandate to the president, not to the vice- president. Perhaps in coalition with secular nationalists such as Megawati, the army could call for a special session of the MPR. Without Suharto's protection, Habibie would find it difficult to win confirmation as the nation's president at such a hostile session.
The Golkar announcement may be no more than a trial balloon
to test reactions. One all-important sector of society reacted
negatively. Fearing Habibie would displease both the IMF and the
powerful army, business drove the rupiah exchange rate down to
untold depths. This may be enough to pull the balloon down again
quietly, without Suharto losing face. If Suharto persists with
the nomination, it will be because he cannot resist the
opportunity to split his opposition.
Gerry van Klinken, editor, 'Inside
Indonesia' magazine.
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