DIGEST No. 33

Title: Preliminary election results raise eyebrows

Date: 30 May, 1997

With only about 7% of the vote counted by 10pm last night, this morning's Indonesian newspaper reports are only an indication of the final result. But the detailed regional breakdowns are too tempting to ignore. In short, Golkar is far exceeding its target of 70%, the PPP has nowhere come even near winning a majority, and the PDI is a complete wipeout. No statistics on spoiled/ informal votes are available, but anecdotal reports suggest the level could be up to twice the 10% of previous polls.

The complete collapse of the PDI is no surprise. It was expected by all analysts as soon as Megawati was removed in June last year. One consequence is that the neat symmetry of the Golkar-PPP-PDI threesome, symbolising wholeness and lack of conflict, is disturbed. This may not overly worry Golkar functionaries.

However, the PPP seems nowhere to have achieved the gains it had been hoping for. It does not even seem to have picked up many disillusioned PDI votes. Instead, the Golkar vote has increased sharply everywhere. In Aceh in 1992, Golkar won 60% of the seats; now it is running at 74% of the votes. Golkar won 57% of the seats in Jakarta in '92, now it is running at 68% of the vote. Measured in these rather crude terms, Golkar experienced similar rises in other 'interesting' provinces - West Java (70% -> 89%), Central Java (56% -> 77%), East Java (58% -> 87%), South Kalimantan (70% -> 79%), and Bali (75% -> 96%).

This could suggest several possibilities. One is that the election violence associated with PPP has driven voters to the safety of Golkar. Another is that disillusioned voters spoiled their vote and left the game to Golkar supporters.

Yet another is that there has been massive poll rigging. This last possibility is likely to be the one highlighted by the PPP, who already this morning had a list of examples of the vote-buying and intimidation that went on in Central Javanese villages yesterday.

The PPP is not set up as an opposition party. Its leaders were selected by the government. It may therefore not be in a position to press its case. After all, were it not for this compliance, there is little doubt that Islamic parties would have easily won every election in the New Order. However, pressure from the rank and file for the PPP leadership to assert itself will this time be much stronger.

Gerry van Klinken, editor, 'Inside Indonesia' magazine.

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