The ever-puzzling gap between populism and power elite politics is becoming wider as Indonesia approaches the moment of succession. The most striking evidence that 'real' politics happen only within the elite and need take no notice of the masses are the shifts recently made by Abdurrahman Wahid and Megawati. Both are lauded as popular leaders. One is making amends with the elite in power, while the other has been marginalised, by foul means rather than fair. Elite theory - Pareto, Lasswell - appears to have greater explanatory power here than do more democratic analyses. One who moved into 'the system' recently is NU leader Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur), long seen as a popular opposition figure. Early October he told Megawati (who he had previously championed as a potential alternative president) to pull her horns in and withdraw her many court cases against the government over the 27 July affair. Before his public statement he had gone to see her, perhaps telling her not to take any notice of his appeal. The court cases are her final form of resistance, and her lawyers announced they were not swayed. Gus Dur suggested it was important to roll with the punches, pointing to Ali Sadikin and Goenawan Mohamad as examples of people marginalised for failing to do so. Perfectly encapsulating the dilemma of Indonesian politics, he said of them: 'morally, they are strong, but politically they are total disasters'. Gus Dur then underlined his importance to Jakarta by publicly taking moral responsibility for the Situbondo anti- Christian riot early October - even though NU had nothing to do with it, and at the risk of offending some local kiais (to whom he in turn apologised). The fruits were soon visible. In early November President Suharto turned up at a NU meeting in Genggong, East Java, and held Gus Dur's hand for a long time. The hand-holding was seen as the long- awaited nod from the President that Gus Dur was the acknowledged leader of NU, and not Abu Hasan, who had received some official support for a bid to oust Gus Dur a couple of years ago and had been expected to make his move at this particular meeting. While Gus Dur was out of favour with the Palace, few had dared to mention him in establishment forums. When he was back in, it was not long before retired Gen. Soemitro, who perhaps translates more liberal opinion within the army, had proposed Gus Dur for vice president. Analysts thought Suharto made the biggest move to rapprochement, though no doubt Gus Dur was also under considerable internal pressure to heal the rift. The deal is that he can keep his pro- democracy friends, but will distance himself from them in public. Megawati, meanwhile, remains as isolated by the establishment as she is popular with the people. Political observer Laode Ida, at the launching of a recent (rather hostile) book on her by Ahmad Bahar, said Megawati and her group had a very fragile network. Her chief mistake had been to ignore the two main networks of power, namely the military and formal Islam close to power. He somewhat uncharitably discounted Gus Dur as a real symbol of Islam. Megawati's younger brother Guruh Soekarnoputra, a 43-year old artist who had also been lured into PDI politics by Soerjadi in 1992, last month accepted an invitation to attend a major function of the Golkar pillar organisation Kosgoro. This annoyed Soerjadi (now the Sukarno family's favourite enemy), while delighting Golkar functionaries. Megawati supporters did not seem to know if they should be pleased because Guruh was abandoning a Soerjadi-led PDI farce, or dismayed that he was abandoning his sister's fight to regain the leadership. On balance, the public impression was that Guruh had decided to get with the strength. As a result of these shifts - Gus Dur into 'the system', Megawati so far out of it that her own brother abandoned her - the ranks of figures seen as popular alternatives are thinning. Ever-vigilant propagandists for the status quo now have the luxury of levelling their artillery exclusively at figures with much smaller followings. The latest to cop a coordinated barrage of threatening criticism is Nobel Peace Prize winner Bishop Belo, over remarks he made about human rights in East Timor to the prestigious German magazine Der Spiegel at the time of President Kohl's visit to Indonesia.
Gerry van Klinken, editor, Inside Indonesia magazine.
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