The events of the last couple of weeks have demonstrated that Indonesia remains a one-party state. That party is not Golkar but the armed forces Abri, with the President as its commander-in- chief. It is not correct to speak of a disguised military coup, as some have done. Rather, some of the pretense has gone out of metropolitan politics as the armed forces bared their teeth in a way not seen for some time. However, this heightened public profile has come at a cost. It is eroding Abri's legitimacy (see a following Digest). And it is narrowing Abri's domestic security role to that of presidential guard. Several developments are worth noting. 1. The replacement last week of three Military Area Commanders. Earlier this year it was announced that the extraordinarily high number of senior officer mutations this year and last had been completed and there would be no more new military area commanders before the elections in 1997. This commitment has now been broken. It suggests the President, no doubt mindful of his own experience in late 1965, remains nervous about the development of possibly disloyal alliances within the senior officer corps in a crunch. The new commanders are Maj-Gen Agum Gumelar to head Wirabuana (Sulawesi), Brig-Gen Johnny Lumintang to head Trikora (Irian Jaya), and Brig-Gen Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to head Sriwijaya (southern Sumatra). The latter is regarded as a 'rising star' because he is young for his seniority. 2. The promotion of Kopassus (special forces) commander Prabowo to Maj-Gen, consonant with the expansion of Kopassus by 40%, was only announced last week, though it was signed some time earlier. Prabowo is President Suharto's son-in-law, and there may have been fears of jealousy in the ranks. 3. Brig-Gen Syafri Syamsuddin was promoted to chief of staff of the Jaya military command (Jakarta). He is a very young officer (staff college class of 1974) and has had a career entirely in Kopassus and with the presidential guard. Jakarta is clearly the most politically sensitive military area command in Indonesia. 4. There are rumours that Gen Hartono will soon be replaced by Lt- Gen Wiranto as Army Chief of Staff. Wiranto is at 49 the army's youngest Lt-Gen. He was recently appointed Kostrad (strategic forces) commander, and has experience as personal adjutant to the President (like Suyono). Hartono may then become Abri Commander, replacing Feisal Tanjung, with perhaps an eye on the vice- presidency in 1998. Hartono has already exceeded retiring age but has had his term of service extended. 5. The sudden sacking of Abri Chief of General Staff Lt-Gen Suyono. The political importance of this is not so clear to me, but it's a dramatic story. As chief of the military-dominated internal security agency Bakorstanas this officer is politically powerful. There had been rumour for some months that Suyono was not up to the job and would be sent on an ambassadorship. Two days before the military-backed invasion of the PDI compound, he had the poor foresight not to be in the office. He then had the additional misfortune of falling off a new Harley Davidson motorcycle (donated by businessman Djody Setiawan) over a bridge into a five-metre ravine in a remote part of northern Sulawesi, severely injuring a leg and an arm. A couple of days ago he was curtly removed, evidently because the President was furious that he had failed to 'anticipate' events. Suyono is replaced by Lt-Gen Tarub, an experienced Kopassus officer the same age as Suyono, and lately commander of Kostrad. The President evidently wants to make the protection of the presidency by a personally loyal armed forces a priority for the army. The major role in this regard is being played by Kopassus and/ or Kostrad officers personally known to him as presidential guard or adjutant. Abri has always been more an internal police force than an external defence force. It is now being transformed into a palace guard for a president facing an uncertain future. The political risks that this transformation entails will test Abri's internal cohesion.
Gerry van Klinken, editor, Inside Indonesia magazine.
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