It still seems unlikely Megawati will emerge as Indonesia's Cory Aquino. But her removal was a desperate measure that will make it more difficult to control the normally predictable elections next year.
When Megawati supporters within PDI in January moved to have her candidate as President in 1998, they were warned of the danger, but persisted. This must have led directly to the decision by President Suharto, transmitted not via the rather ineffective Interior Minister Yogie Memed but probably through Army Chief of Staff Gen. Hartono, to destroy Megawati politically.
The problem was that Megawati, with some early Abri connivance (Hendropriyono and Agum Gumelar in early 1994), had consolidated her position. Destroying her now ran the risk of also destroying the whole PDI. Certainly reducing PDI's electoral potency was part of the plan, but its complete collapse will seriously affect the legitimacy of the three-fold electoral pattern.
It now looks as if PDI has been not merely curtailed but destroyed. The officially recognised incumbents Soerjadi and Fatimah Achmad are under permanent police protection, the 16 central board members who defected to Soerjadi are in hiding fearing popular retribution, the Bali provincial board of PDI is openly defying Soerjadi, and branches all over Indonesia are holding meetings to condemn those of its members who agreed to go to Medan.
A Soerjadi-led PDI may still become a reality, and Megawati may become a voice in the wilderness. Access to the corridors of power is a strong incentive. Being out on the streets with enthusiastic but poor youth support is an equally strong disincentive. But this intervention probably came too late to permit Soerjadi to regroup in the way he has done in the past. Already several early stages of the electoral process have passed without PDI participation in some areas.
The result will be a dismal showing for PDI, and a higher level of informal voting. This could spoil the whole effect of the election, in which an 'honourable' share of around 15-20% each for the PDI and PPP is essential. President Suharto has been forced into the election process with much more 'wild' opposition in the streets than he would like, and a greater reluctance of establishment opinion-makers to overlook the fact.
Gerry van Klinken, editor, 'Inside
Indonesia' magazine.
| Return to digest index |
